A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
